Analysts revamp IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave Quantum stock price targets on quantum computing outlook

Are you ready for a quantum leap?

No, this is not the 1989 TV show about the scientist who gets trapped in time after a botched government experiment and must leap from body to body. And, no, it’s not a 2022 reboot, either.

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This is for real- or it will soon be, according to those in the know.

Quantum computing is one of the main areas of emerging quantum technology, and it’s generating a lot of buzz right now. 

This field of computer science applies the laws of quantum mechanics to simulate and solve complex problems that are too difficult for the current crop of computers.

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While today’s computers use binary electrical signals to represent ones or zeros, quantum computers employ quantum bits or qubits, which are subatomic particles.

“Digital computers have been making it easier for us to process information for decades,” the consulting firm McKinsey said in an April report. “But quantum computers are poised to take computing to a whole new level.”

McKinsey said that quantum computers have the potential to work with better algorithms that could transform machine learning across a diverse range of industries, from automotive to pharmaceuticals.

Google makes quantum chip announcement

Quantum computers could accelerate the arrival of self-driving vehicles, and companies like Ford  (F) , General Motors  (GM) , Volkswagen  (VLKAF) , and numerous mobility start-ups are running video and image data through complex neural networks with the goal of using AI to teach a car to make crucial driving decisions.

“Over the next few years, the major players in quantum computing, as well as a small cohort of start-ups, will steadily increase the number of qubits that their computers can handle and improve how the technology functions,” McKinsey said.

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But none of this is going to happen anytime soon. 

The firm’s survey of tech executives, investors, and academics in quantum computing found that 72% believe that by 2035, there will be a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer, meaning a computing system that will continue functioning correctly even in the presence of errors or faults. 

The remaining 28% surveyed believe this milestone won’t be reached until 2040 or later.

On Dec. 9, Hartmut Neven, an engineering vice president at Google  (GOOGL) , unveiled Willow, the tech giant’s latest quantum chip.

“Willow can reduce errors exponentially as we scale up using more qubits,” Neven, founder and manager of the quantum artificial intelligence lab, said in a blog post. “This cracks a key challenge in quantum error correction that the field has pursued for almost 30 years.”

In addition, Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.

Quantum computing stocks explode higher

Investment firms have been researching quantum companies and recently issued reports for IonQ  (IONQ) , D-Wave Quantum  (QBTS)  and Rigetti Computing  (RGTI) .

IonQ is a quantum computing hardware and software company. D-Wave develops quantum computing systems and offers software, cloud services, and professional solutions for several industries, while Rigetti designs quantum computers and offers cloud-based quantum services.

IonQ’s shares are up 206% from a year ago, while D-Wave Quantum surged 582.4% in the last 12 months. Rigetti Computing has skyrocketed a mind-boggling 789% from this time last year.

“Everyone, investors and customers alike, want to know when previously impossible tasks can be addressed by quantum applications,” Peter Chapman, IonQ’s president and CEO, said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call in November. 

“The answer is that [when], the convergence of powerful enough quantum computers, a matching application and ability to manufacture the hardware, at scale.”

IonQ CEO says noisy quantum computers can provide value

Chapman said that there are two camps or schools of thought on this topic in the quantum world.

“One camp believes you need near perfection before value can be unlocked,” he said. “If they are correct, sadly, Quantum is still a long way off. The naysayers belong to this camp, but their numbers are dwindling every day.”

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“The other camp, which IonQ and others belong to, believe today’s early noisy quantum computers can provide value even before they are perfected,” Chapman added. “If we are right, it gives us a significant advantage by generating early meaningful cash collection as we work towards perfection.”

IonQ posted a loss of 24 cents per share last quarter, missing Wall Street’s call for a 23-cent loss. Revenue spiked 102%, to $12.4 million beating analysts’ forecasts of $10.56 million.

DA Davidson initiated coverage of IonQ with a buy rating and $50 price target, according to The Fly.

The firm believes IonQ represents “a compelling pure-play investment positioned to capitalize on quantum computing’s rapid growth,” driven by increasing inadequacy of classical computing for solving complex problems, while also citing the company’s “leadership in this emergent frontier.” 

Unlike competing architectures from IBM  (IBM) , Google, and others, a core technological advantage in the company’s trapped-ion qubit architecture offers IonQ greater reliability, accuracy, and scalability, DA Davidson said.

Benchmark raised the firm’s price target on D-Wave Quantum to $8 from $3 and kept a buy rating on the shares. 

The firm said the sentiment for quantum has “clearly shifted over the last few weeks,” with multiple industry and company-specific announcements helping drive the price inflection for the group. 

Despite the move, Benchmark said it believes the company’s recent balance sheet recapitalization “eliminates much of the risk discount that has remained an overhang since its public debut” following a meeting with D-Wave’s CFO, John Markovich, during Benchmark’s Discovery Conference.

Craig-Hallum initiated coverage of Rigetti Computing with a buy rating and $12 price target. 

The company has unique scaling advantages that may allow it to achieve equivalency or superiority compared with its direct peers and a quantum advantage in the next few years, the firm said.

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