Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s OBV is rising despite price consolidation, signaling hidden accumulation.
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A similar OBV divergence in March–April preceded a 57% BTC price rally.
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A confirmed bull flag breakout could send Bitcoin toward $130,000-135,000 by Q3 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck in a range between $102,000 and $112,000 since May, but its on-balance volume (OBV) continues to trend upward, hinting at more gains ahead.
Rising OBV hints at Bitcoin accumulation
The price-OBV divergence is signaling growing “buying pressure,” according to market analyst Cas Abbé, who expects a rising OBV will assist in sending BTC’s price toward the $130,000–$135,000 area by Q3 2025.
The OBV indicator tracks volume to determine whether buyers or sellers are in control. It adds volume on days when the price closes higher and subtracts it on down days. So, a rising OBV means that total buying volume outpaces selling volume.
In Bitcoin’s case, the OBV has continued to make higher highs since early May, even as price has largely consolidated sideways ever since. From a technical perspective, such a divergence suggests that demand is building under the surface.
Previous OBV divergence led to 57% BTC price gains
Historical price action shows that Bitcoin tends to break out strongly when rising OBV confirms underlying buying pressure during periods of price consolidation.
Between March and April 2025, BTC was trading sideways between $76,000 and $84,000, when OBV started forming higher lows. The divergence was followed by a 57% rally, with BTC hitting over $110,000 by May.
The fractal could validate analyst Cas Abbé’s view that a move toward $130,000–$135,000 may occur in Q3 2025 if it plays out as intended.
Bull flag supports $130,000 BTC price scenario
Bitcoin appears to be forming a classic bull flag pattern, a continuation setup that typically appears after strong upward moves, followed by a period of consolidation.
On the daily chart, BTC’s surge to nearly $112,000 in May from around $93,670 established the “flagpole.” Since then, price has been consolidating downward inside a parallel channel, forming the “flag.”
This structure suggests that BTC may be gearing up for another leg higher. That would place Bitcoin’s breakout target around $130,000, aligning closely with Cas Abbé’s forecast for Q3 2025.
Related: No one will sell their Bitcoin once it taps $130K: Bitwise CEO
The bull flag target aligns with the predictions of several market analysts, including Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, who sees Bitcoin hitting $130,000-150,000 owing to strong institutional flows and a weaker dollar.
Analyst Stockmoney Lizards, among other analysts, anticipate the Bitcoin price to rise even higher, eyeing a year-end target of $200,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
