JPMorgan analysts reported that Bitcoin is likely to continue gaining ground at gold’s expense in the second half of the year, driven by rising corporate demand and growing support from U.S. states.
According to analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the ‘debasement trade’—where investors turn to gold and bitcoin to guard against weakening fiat currencies—has turned into a zero-sum contest, where bitcoin is now gaining the upper hand.
“Between mid-February and mid-April gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin, while of the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite, i.e. bitcoin rising at the expense of gold,” said JPMorgan analysts. “In all, we expect the YTD zero sum game between gold and bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.”
Since April 22, gold has dropped nearly 8%, while bitcoin has surged 18%. Investor flows reflect this shift, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and moving into bitcoin. Futures data reflects the same trend, with gold positions decreasing and bitcoin positions increasing.
JPMorgan attributes bitcoin’s momentum not just to weakening gold but to crypto-specific catalysts. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are increasing their bitcoin holdings, with Strategy planning to raise $84 billion for bitcoin purchases by 2027 and already hitting 32% of that target.
Yesterday, Metaplanet reported its strongest quarter to date for Q1 FY2025. Metaplanet’s bitcoin holdings rose to 6,796 BTC—a 3.9x increase year-to-date and over 5,000 BTC added in 2025 alone. Despite a temporary ¥7.4 billion valuation loss from a bitcoin price dip in March, the company rebounded with ¥13.5 billion in unrealized gains as of May 12. Since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, Metaplanet’s BTC net asset value has surged 103.1x, and its market cap has grown 138.1x.
Several U.S. states are also warming to bitcoin. New Hampshire now permits up to 5% of its reserves in bitcoin. Arizona is launching a Bitcoin reserve and pledges not to raise taxes this year.
“As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for bitcoin,” wrote the analysts.
